Tag: 2024 election

  • Dispatch From Maricopa County: Election Deniers, Voting Counts, and More

    Dispatch From Maricopa County: Election Deniers, Voting Counts, and More

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    “Some of the rhetoric and political opinions I encountered were completely horrifying, but when I had actual one-on-one conversations with people, they couldn’t have been more pleasant. Which is the big tragedy of American politics,” says photographer Jamie Lee Taete of the final days of the US election. “That everyone is basically in the same boat and being convinced to hate each other by the powerful people that are actually making everyone’s lives miserable. Even Kari Lake, who spent a large portion of the speech that I attended pointing toward the media area and talking about how evil we all are, gave me and a couple of other photographers what felt like a pretty genuine thank you when she was leaving the event.”

    Photograph: Jamie Lee Taete

    Attendees at the Kari Lake rally in Prescott Arizona.

    Attendees at the Kari Lake rally in Prescott, Arizona.

    Photograph: Jamie Lee Taete

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  • January 6 Rioters Think Donald Trump’s Victory Is Their Get-Out-of-Jail-Free Card

    January 6 Rioters Think Donald Trump’s Victory Is Their Get-Out-of-Jail-Free Card

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    If Trump does follow through on his promises, there are a few ways that it could play out. When WIRED reached Steven Metcalf, an attorney who represents several high-profile January 6 rioters, including Lang and Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola, he was contemplating what Trump’s victory could mean for his clients.

    Metcalf said he was taking Trump’s promises with a grain of salt, “because that’s just what I do. Until I see something, I don’t believe it.”

    He had questions too. For example, who would get priority—people who had already done time or people currently in prison. What sort of advice was Trump getting, and who was he getting it from?

    “Then you have to think about the party going forwards, and ultimately what their beliefs are regarding assault on police officers and/or destruction of property,” said Metcalfe. “Will they draw a line in the sand, or would it be a blanket pardon?”

    Some January 6 defendants are already requesting delays in their criminal proceedings and ramping up appeals. Nayib Hassan, who represents Tarrio, put out a statement saying that he looks forward to “what the future holds, both in terms of the judicial process for our client and the broader political landscape under the new administration.”

    Lawyers for Christopher Carnell, who was convicted of felony obstruction and four misdemeanors for the riot, requested to move Friday’s status hearing in his case to December, citing Trump’s clemency promises. (This motion was denied.)

    Lawyers for Jaimee Avery, who is facing misdemeanor charges in connection with the riot, have also requested a delay in criminal proceedings—for different reasons. “It would create a gross disparity for Ms. Avery to spend even a day in jail when the man who played a pivotal role in organizing and instigating the events of January 6 will now never face consequences for his role in it,” they wrote.

    Fellows, for his part, feels particularly confident because he was convicted of nonviolent crimes, including obstruction of justice, which the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year had been applied in an overly broad fashion with regards to the January 6 cases. “It will be cool to walk around being like, hey, I’m pardoned by the president.”

    He told WIRED he’d been sitting by his window in his apartment in DC and gloating to passersby about Trump’s victory. “I’ve been getting some dirty looks,” he says.

    “HEY, DONALD TRUMP WON. WE DID IT. HEY, WE DID IT GUYS. UP HERE!” Fellows shouted, cackling. “THEIR BODY, OUR CHOICE, AMIRITE?”

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  • After Trump’s Victory, the 4B Movement Is Spreading Across TikTok

    After Trump’s Victory, the 4B Movement Is Spreading Across TikTok

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    The 4B movement originated in South Korea, and encourages women to opt out of marriage (bihon), childbirth (bichulsan), romance (biyeonae), and sexual relationships (bisekseu). Born out of protests against South Korea’s culture—instances of dating violence, revenge porn, and gender wage gaps are widespread—the movement has grown in recent years. South Korea has the lowest birth rate of any country, and despite government incentives, many women still feel the country’s patriarchal structure makes the cost of motherhood too high, and refuse to be “baby-making machines,” according to reporting from the New York Times.

    Although it started in the late 2010s, the movement didn’t really gain attention in the US until earlier this year. New York magazine published a long feature on it in March in which writer Anna Louie Sussman laid out the ways in which 4B adherents were, as Barbieri demonstrated on TikTok, cutting their hair and eschewing beauty products. “The blowback and fear that 4B practitioners experience underscores their conviction that Korea is still a frightening place for women,” Sussman wrote, noting the threats and attacks women, and specifically 4B protesters, receive.

    Some creators who spoke to WIRED were already participating in the movement before the election. Dalina, who uses they/them pronouns and asked to withhold their last name for privacy reasons, was casually seeing a man when, they say, “he made a joke along the lines of like, ‘I considered coming inside of you.’” Dalina says at that moment their blood ran cold. “I thought, ‘Why does that sound like a threat?’ It’s like, because it is a threat … He also knew that it was a threat.”

    Since then, Dalina, who goes by @senoracabrona on TikTok, says they have sworn off romantic and sexual entanglements with men. Their video, including text telling women to look up the 4B movement, has garnered more than 130,000 views on TikTok.

    With the election of Trump, and all the threats to reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ rights and misogyny that entails, women online seemed to be channeling the fear they felt into action in similar ways.

    Barbieri says when she posted her original 4B video it was the result of something she’d been investigating for several months via her involvement in feminist spaces on Reddit, Facebook, and Instagram. After her post went up, she got several negative comments from men, but was surprised to find a lot of support, particularly from women interested in the movement.



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  • Election Denial Conspiracy Theories Are Exploding on X. This Time They’re Coming From the Left

    Election Denial Conspiracy Theories Are Exploding on X. This Time They’re Coming From the Left

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    While at publication time the Associated Press’ vote count was indeed 16 million votes lower than that for the 2020 election, the explanation is trivially simple: The entirety of the vote hasn’t been tabulated yet.

    “Election denial is anti-democratic, whether it comes from the left or the right,” David Becker, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research, wrote on X. “No, 20 million votes aren’t missing. Votes are still being counted in many states, including millions in CA alone. Number of votes in 2024 very close to 2020, when all are reported “

    Posts relating to these conspiracy theories began to gain traction around 2:00 am Eastern, PeakMetrics data shows, which coincides roughly with the time the election was called for Trump—but even as Americans went to bed, the number of posts did not decline.

    “By 8am ET, the number of posts per hour had surged to 31,991,” PeakMetrics wrote in an analysis shared with WIRED. “There was perhaps a surprising lack of overnight drop-off in posts from 2am-7am ET—when typically posts would decline as the US hits sleeping hours. The steady increase in posts on the Kamala recount/missing votes narrative throughout the overnight hours may simply reflect the intensity of this discussion—or may point to inauthentic or automated posting behavior.”

    Unlike the election denial movement in 2020, which was inspired by Trump’s refusal to accept the results, these conspiracy theories haven’t received any support from the candidate. On Wednesday, Harris urged her supporters to accept the results and assured them her team “will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.”

    The phenomenon of left-leaning or anti-Trump accounts posting conspiracy theories on social media platforms, referred to as BlueAnon, came to prominence earlier this year in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump’s life in July.

    “Any event that seems improbable will always invite conspiracy theories about what ‘really’ happened,” says Mike Rothschild, an author who writes about conspiracy theories and extremists. “In this case, it’s a factually incorrect narrative that there are tens of millions of missing votes, and that Russian bomb threats sabotaged the Harris campaign. Neither are true—turnout appears to be down, and many states, including California, are still well into counting. And while bomb threats are never acceptable, they’re not the reason why the Harris campaign lost every swing state. To write Trump’s win off to conspiracy theories is to not live in reality.”

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  • Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour On Prediction Markets’ Big Night: ‘We Even Overtook Pornhub’

    Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour On Prediction Markets’ Big Night: ‘We Even Overtook Pornhub’

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    Last evening, when most traditional polls showed the 2024 US presidential election as a toss-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, prediction markets including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket broadcast a very different outcome, correctly anticipating a decisive Trump win in the electoral college.

    Now, the people running these markets are taking their own victory laps. For weeks now, as bettors have placed huge sums of money on the outcome of the election, the markets have faced scrutiny about whether they were accurately capturing voter sentiment or merely overhyped fads distorted by MAGA-leaning bettors. They see this as a moment of vindication. “It’s such a better alternative to polls,” says Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour. “One thing we can all agree on is people like making money and dislike losing money.” The company touted the accuracy of its predictions on social media.

    Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has made similarly confident statements on social media about the superiority of his product, calling it a “global truth machine.” He also claimed on X that the Trump campaign “literally found out they were winning from Polymarket.”

    While Polymarket is the global leader, Kalshi holds the distinction as the first modern market in which US citizens are legally allowed to place wagers. (Prior to the 1940s, gambling on elections was commonplace, but it fell out of favor following the Great Depression.) With online gambling broadly on the rise, a new contemporary wave of prediction markets has emerged to build upon renewed interest in wagering; in a blog post on Kalshi’s entry into politics, Mansour called it a “forgotten American tradition.” After a prolonged (and still, technically, ongoing) battle with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Manhattan-based startup jumped into the market earlier this fall—and found an enthusiastic user base eager to gamble on the outcome. The company is still tabulating exactly how many people bet on the election, but Mansour estimates that it is in the millions. “We’ve blown up unbelievably,” he says. Kalshi is also still accounting for how much money bettors made but says it is at least $900 million and likely more than $1 billion.

    This week, Kalshi reached the top of the app store, and Mansour says the staff was ecstatic as it followed the startup’s climb up Google Trends. “We overtook everything,” he says. “We even overtook Pornhub.”

    “Markets work because, one, there’s skin in the game. People are putting real money where their mouth is. And two, there’s the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ aspect to it,” Mansour says. “Those two together are a very, very powerful force.” He thinks that questions about whether it’s good or bad to put money into politics in this way are obtuse in a world in which the wealthy have long financialized elections. “If you are rich enough, you can go to an investment bank, and they will give you a Trump basket or a Harris basket. You can take that position already,” he says. From his vantage point, Kalshi and its ilk are simply leveling the playing field for normal people. The rhetoric is reminiscent of how online stock-trading firm Robinhood—which itself jumped into the election prediction market just a few weeks ago—marketed itself as a great equalizer.

    While there’s a wide variety of events that people can bet on in addition to politics—there’s keen interest, for example, in whether Gladiator 2 will get good critical reception—the company does have some guardrails. “We don’t do wars, terrorism, assassinations, or violence,” says Mansour. “One of our core responsibilities is to make sure that our markets are not susceptible to manipulation.” He says the company employs a team dedicated to spotting suspicious trading patterns and that Kalshi is beholden to the same monitoring as more traditional financial institutions like the New York Stock Exchange.

    The company has already opened up betting on the 2028 primaries, and it’s still taking bets about the outcomes of the 2024 race. Mansour anticipates a high volume of wagers about the second Trump administration’s personnel decisions. “I think cabinet positions are going to be huge,” he says. Right now, Kalshi shows Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s odds of securing a position hovering around 76 percent.

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  • Donald Trump’s Win Cements a New Era for Campaigning Online

    Donald Trump’s Win Cements a New Era for Campaigning Online

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    While Trump dominated conservative news outlets, his influencer operation was nearly nonexistent, putting the campaign at a disadvantage. But over the course of this past year, the campaign and the Republican National Committee began integrating influencers and content creators into their election operation. Influencers were invited to the primary debates and dozens of them showed up to the Republican National Convention in July.

    Many of these creators exist in the manosphere, a community of men who traffic in racist and misogynistic content. Other Trump-aligned influencers who attended these events spread conspiracy theories about Harris, immigration, election fraud, and more. Trump appeared to love it; he shared posts and reveled in the attention online.

    “When we live in such a time as this, when there is such record distrust in the traditional media, people trust people, and influencers are people,” says CJ Pearson, cochair of the RNC’s youth advisory council. “They look to influencers to tell them what to be passionate about, what to be enraged about, what to be activated about, and then that’s exactly what we wanted to do throughout this campaign.”

    On the ground, the Trump campaign was at a disadvantage to Harris’s massive canvassing operations. The Trump team largely outsourced its doorknocking efforts to the Elon Musk–backed America PAC and Turning Point Action. Both groups suffered from glitchy canvassing apps, and WIRED reported that canvassers for Musk’s PAC in Michigan and Arizona were subjected to harsh working conditions and what they say were impossible-to-meet quotas. Republicans in battleground states like Michigan criticized the campaign’s meager get-out-the-vote effort, fearing that it could cost them the election.

    But the in-person campaigning may not have mattered. Bruesewitz believes the campaign’s digital operation may have been what put them over the edge.

    “They all run hand in hand,” says Bruesewitz of the campaign’s online and field operations. “We were making direct contact with them at their doors and on their screens.”

    Hasan Piker, a popular leftist Twitch streamer, says it wasn’t only Trump’s willingness to appear on these podcasts, but also what he represented to their audiences. “Some of those guys are my friends. Others, not so much,” says Piker. “The podcasts themselves are not exactly what caused Trump to gain momentum or popularity. They played a role, for sure, in outreach, but overall, I think that he had a message that resonated with those guys, and the podcast was simply a vehicle to get to those guys.”

    Eric Wilson, a Republican digital strategist, tells WIRED that these online outreach campaigns are less effective at persuading audiences on issues than they are at rallying audiences to vote. “A lot of people misunderstand the role of influencer marketing campaigns,” he says. “It’s about whether they’re going to vote or not. And what we saw in some of the results is that those young men, specifically who were in that target demographic of the various podcasts and influencers, that they went out [and] swung dramatically Trump’s way last night.”

    The next challenge, according to Wilson, is implementing influencer marketing in more localized races. “It makes sense for a national campaign. It’s harder to execute for statewide campaign because, you know, the audiences get narrower and narrower,” says Wilson.

    “You can’t put a dollar amount on the earned media value that we got through our podcast and influencer meetups,” says Bruesewitz. “Jake Paul, whoever it may be. We were able to leverage President Trump’s personality to garner some of the most viral moments in modern history.”

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  • States’ Abortion Rights Wins May Be Short-Lived Under a Second Trump Term

    States’ Abortion Rights Wins May Be Short-Lived Under a Second Trump Term

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    When the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, it ended the constitutional right to have an abortion and returned the ability to regulate the procedure to the states. Now, amid a heated presidential election that resulted in a win for Donald Trump, a handful of states have voted to enshrine reproductive rights into their state constitutions.

    On Tuesday, Americans in 10 states voted on ballot initiatives to protect or expand abortion access. Seven of those states successfully passed protective measures, underscoring the widespread unpopularity of restrictive abortion policies.

    Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New York passed referendums upholding abortion rights, while measures to restore or expand access failed in Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Abortion is already legal until viability in Maryland, Montana, and New York, and throughout pregnancy in Colorado with no restrictions, so the passage of these measures will not change access to abortion in those states.

    Nevada currently allows abortions through 24 weeks, but the ballot initiative passed on Tuesday would extend that until fetal viability. Voters will have to approve the measure again in 2026 in order to formally amend the state’s constitution.

    Arizona and Missouri were two of the many states that moved to restrict abortion access after the repeal of Roe v. Wade. Arizona banned abortion after 15 weeks of gestation, but that law will now be unconstitutional under the newly passed amendment. In Missouri, a trigger law banned abortions at all points of pregnancy, except to save the life of the pregnant person. The law, one of the strictest abortion bans in the county, made no exceptions for rape or incest. But on Tuesday, voters backed an amendment that would end that ban and amend the Missouri constitution to protect abortion access.

    In Florida, an amendment that would have prohibited laws restricting abortion gained 57 percent of the vote, falling short of the 60 percent threshold it needed to pass. The state currently bans abortion at six weeks of pregnancy, and enforces other abortion restrictions.

    Meanwhile, Nebraska voters weighed competing ballot measures on abortion rights, ultimately passing one that upholds an abortion ban after the 12th week of pregnancy. Voters in South Dakota rejected a proposal to protect abortion rights, preserving a near-total ban there.

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  • The Election Was Even Weirder in VR

    The Election Was Even Weirder in VR

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    Technology has been at the forefront of this election cycle from the start. Generative AI has driven concerns about misinformation and eye-rolling propaganda. Even the campaigns themselves embraced new-ish spaces, like the Harris-Walz-themed map in Fortnite.

    The metaverse may not be quite ready for the campaign cycle, but perhaps the political system should be ready for it. For all the chaos and trolling in the room on election night, what soon becomes clear is that the vibe in VR reflects the outside world.

    Image may contain Donald Trump Person Adult Computer Hardware Electronics Hardware Monitor Screen and Urban

    An avatar watches election returns.

    Image may contain Donald Trump Electronics Screen Computer Hardware Hardware Monitor TV People Person and Adult

    Trump support was strong in VRChat.

    Image may contain Computer Hardware Electronics Hardware Monitor Screen and Person

    The venue for the watch party.

    First off, the VR election rooms are overwhelmingly male, which will be unsurprising for anyone accustomed to the political manosphere in the US. Most of the people I encounter in both virtual realms seem to favor Trump, and that power imbalance only grows throughout the night as the red wave deepens and the former president’s reelection seems more and more likely.

    My colleague Kelly talks with a person dressed in a black Iron Man-esque suit of armor who says they are from Michigan. Ersatz Iron Man calls the state for Trump much earlier than it was officially reported. They say they know lots of people who support Trump, and for whom Elon Musk’s endorsement and posts on X were an important factor to helping Trump win more broadly.

    Lots of moments like this happen over the night. At first, the real-world results clash with the absurdity in the Horizon World rooms. People hiding within their brightly colored avatars, shouting over the top of each other, saying the most offensive things possibly to provoke a reaction. But then the room starts to split, a larger group on the Trump side—loud and excited. Then a smaller group on the Harris side, more somber and reflective. Some people congregate outside, talking in low voices and crunching the numbers about how many electoral votes are left.

    “We’ll never have a girl president,” I hear a child shout during my visit to MetDonalds, Horizon Worlds’ mockup of the fast-food chain with golden arches. “We’ve got to keep our American traditions!”

    “Let’s kill all the old white people in America that are around,” says somebody wearing an avatar that looks like a slinky dog from Toy Story. Then, to somebody else, “I guess if Trump wins you don’t have to worry about your school getting shot up as much I guess.”

    Later I watch somebody voraciously defend Trump’s policies while a different person in a knight avatar comes around behind him and starts miming rubbing his nipples while moaning loudly over the top of him. By the end of the night, it starts to feel like the virtual world is just as weird as the real one.

    Additional reporting by WIRED contributor Kelly Bourdet.

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  • The Manosphere Won | WIRED

    The Manosphere Won | WIRED

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    Donald Trump will once again be the president of the United States. It wasn’t especially close. Which came as a shock, unless you watch or listen to Theo Von. Or the Nelk Boys. Or Adin Ross. Or Andrew Schulz. Or Shawn Ryan. Or sure, yes, Joe Rogan, but he’s the one you’ve definitely heard of.

    You’re going to hear a lot of people attribute Trump’s win to all kinds of reasons: inflation fatigue, immigration fearmongering, Biden’s doomed determination to have one last rodeo. But he owes at least part of his victory to the manosphere, that amorphous assortment of influencers who are mostly young, exclusively male, and increasingly the drivers of whatever monoculture remains in an online society that’s long since been fragmented all to hell.

    It’s on these podcasts and streams that Trump spent a disproportionate amount of time in the final weeks of his campaign, and for good reason. That list above—plus Tucker Carlson—includes the four biggest podcasters on Spotify. Trump sat with all of them, often for hours, reaching millions of conservative or apolitical people, cementing his status as one of them, a sigma, a guy with clout, and the apex of a model of masculinity that prioritizes fame as a virtue unto itself. For many young voters who weren’t paying attention in 2016 and 2020, a generation that overwhelmingly gets their news from social media feeds rather than mainstream outlets, this was also their first real exposure to Trump.

    Trump used these podcast appearances to both humanize and mythologize himself. He used them to launder his extremist positions through the pervasive can’t you take a joke filter that propels the Tony Hinchcliffes of the world to stardom. Most important of all, he used them to get out the vote.

    Much of this happened in corners of the internet that lots of people have never heard of, much less visited. When you think of Trump in his element, you may think first of the rallies, the often garbled, hours-long orations in front of camo-laden disciples. They serve their purpose for both sides: Trump got the in-person adoration he craves, and “resistance” Democrats got to laugh at the half-empty arenas and uncanny septuagenarian dance moves.

    But in 2024, shouting to a few thousand true believers has nothing on being anointed by Elon Musk on X and a cadre of right-wing influencers with collective followings in the hundreds of millions.

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  • Donald Trump Defeats Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election

    Donald Trump Defeats Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election

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    Trump, who was convicted of 34 felonies in May and welcomed climate change because it would create more oceanfront properties, ran a nativist campaign built around a promise to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants and impose tariffs on imports from foreign countries, which many economists have said would create a depression. The 78-year-old billionaire has also vowed to roll back environmental policies and protections, severely curtail the rights of transgender people, and seek revenge against his political enemies.

    In the final days of the campaign, Trump-aligned surrogates and influencers, like Musk, pushed for more men to cast their ballots for Trump. For months, Trump and his vice presidential pick JD Vance appeared on dozens of podcasts targeted at young men. Trump sat with the popular Kick streamer Adin Ross in a live video at Mar-a-Lago over the summer, joined wrestler and former vlogger Logan Paul’s Impaulsive podcast, and brought many influencers, like the Nelk Boys, along on the campaign trail.

    After the July assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, Musk formally endorsed Trump. “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” Musk posted to X at the time.

    Musk subsequently donated well over $100 million dollars to support Trump’s reelection and turned his platform X into a megaphone for the former president. Musk’s America PAC, along with Turning Point Action, led Trump’s canvassing operations in states like Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Some of these canvassers were refused pay and forced into unsafe working conditions, like being transported in the back of a U-Haul without seat belts, WIRED reported.

    Other influencers lent Trump support as well. On Thursday, influencer and boxer Jake Paul formally endorsed Trump in a video posted to X. On Monday, Joe Rogan followed suit in a post sharing his most recent podcast episode with Musk. Paul has more than 20 million YouTube subscribers and Rogan hosts the most popular podcast in the US with over 14 million followers on Spotify.

    “They have degraded and disparaged our amazing men for far too long,” Ashley St. Clair said in an X post on Monday. “Men must VOTE!”

    In the leadup to the election, polls suggested a deep shift toward Harris among senior and independent women, seemingly driven by the Supreme Court overturning federal abortion rights and a subsequent wave of unpopular restrictions backed by Republicans at the state level. In the end, though, the Trump strategy of turning out voters in economically struggling, deindustrialized regions while chipping away at the margins among traditionally overwhelmingly Democratic minority constituencies carried the day.

    Republicans will take back the Senate, making it much easier for an incoming Trump administration to confirm judges and cabinet officials. The balance of power in the House of Representatives has yet to be decided.

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