Western Europe experienced an exceptional combination of heat and dryness in July 2026, creating conditions that helped drive the spread and intensification of extreme wildfires across the region.
New data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), shows that the region endured its hottest June-July period on record.
The prolonged heat affected France, Spain, England, Ireland, and other parts of western Europe, while exceptionally low rainfall and soil moisture left vegetation increasingly vulnerable to ignition.
River levels also fell sharply, with the Seine, Rhine, and Danube among those affected, adding pressure to water supplies, agriculture and energy production.
The result was a dangerous escalation of wildfires in Europe. Dry land and repeated heatwaves provided ideal conditions for fires to spread rapidly, while smoke from major blazes added to air pollution concerns.
The latest findings underline how multiple climate extremes can interact, turning prolonged heat and drought into a much wider environmental and public safety threat.
Speaking on the alarming increase of wildfires, Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at ECMWF, said: “Last month saw exceptional wildfire activity across western Europe, in terms of the area burnt and emissions.
“Climate change is increasingly bringing the kinds of hot and dry conditions that favour large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the fire season northwards. Larger fires produce more smoke and inject it higher into the atmosphere, meaning it can travel further and impact air quality not only locally, but across the wider region.
“Countries that experience relatively few wildfires may be increasingly impacted by long-range transport of smoke, even if they are thousands of kilometres away.”
A summer of persistent heat
July marked another chapter in an unusually hot European summer. Western Europe experienced its third and fourth heatwaves since May, following an exceptionally intense heatwave in June.
Although July’s individual heatwaves were less severe than those recorded in June, their persistence was significant.
The average temperature across western Europe for June and July reached 21.62°C, which was 2.79°C above the 1991-2020 average and the highest such value recorded.
Europe as a whole had a more mixed temperature pattern. Average European land temperatures in July reached 20.49°C, making it the 11th-highest July on record.
A pronounced west-east divide explains the relatively modest ranking, with western countries experiencing unusually high temperatures while parts of eastern Europe and Scandinavia were cooler than average.
Globally, July 2026 was tied with July 2024 as the second-warmest July recorded by the ERA5 dataset. Average global surface air temperature reached 16.90°C, 1.47°C above the estimated pre-industrial level.
Drought creates fuel for wildfires
Heat alone does not determine wildfire behaviour. The availability and dryness of vegetation are critical factors, and July brought particularly concerning conditions across western Europe.
Dry conditions that had developed during May and June persisted and intensified through July. Parts of Spain, France, Germany, Austria, and Hungary experienced significant rainfall and soil moisture deficits, while the UK, Ireland, and Benelux also recorded exceptionally dry conditions.
Surface soil moisture across western Europe was significantly lower than in July 2022, when the region experienced severe drought.
This combination of high temperatures, depleted soil moisture and dry vegetation increased the amount of combustible material available to fires. Copernicus data directly links these conditions with exceptional wildfire activity in western Europe in terms of both burned area and emissions.
The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) was already reporting elevated fire activity by mid-July. As of 15 July, more than 167,000 hectares had burned in the EU during 2026, above the long-term average for that point in the year.
EFFIS also recorded more than twice the long-term average number of detected fires, while very extreme fire danger was forecast across areas including Britain, France, and northern Iberia.
Record ocean temperatures add to the pressure
The conditions on land were accompanied by extraordinary ocean temperatures.
Average sea surface temperature across the extra-polar oceans between 60°S and 60°N reached 20.96°C in July, the highest recorded for the month and above the previous July record of 20.89°C set in 2023.
Around Europe, the Atlantic and western Mediterranean recorded record July sea surface temperatures, contributing to widespread strong or severe marine heatwaves.
The tropical Pacific was also exceptionally warm as developing El Niño conditions strengthened. While El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, its interaction with a warming climate can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific.
The combination of unusually warm seas, persistent atmospheric heat and depleted land moisture illustrates the interconnected nature of the climate system.
Low rivers compound wildfire risks
Drought has also created problems beyond forests and grasslands.
River flows were much lower than average across large parts of western and central Europe. The Seine, Rhine, and Danube were particularly affected, putting additional pressure on water supplies, irrigation, ecosystems, river transport and energy generation.
These impacts can compound the consequences of wildfires. Firefighting operations depend on reliable water resources, while drought-stressed vegetation and landscapes can take longer to recover after burning.
At the same time, smoke from major fires can travel hundreds of kilometres, exposing populations far from the original blaze to elevated concentrations of particulate pollution.
Copernicus atmospheric monitoring has previously shown how wildfire smoke can produce significant PM2.5 pollution and affect air quality across national borders.
Wildfire risk is becoming a wider European concern
The July conditions are part of a broader shift in European wildfire risk rather than an isolated weather event.
Research published in July 2026 found that extreme fire weather has already become more frequent and intense in several parts of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe and parts of eastern Europe.
Climate modelling indicates that these conditions are expected to become more widespread as global temperatures rise, with southern Europe facing particularly strong increases and fire-prone conditions expanding northwards.
This does not mean all wildfires in Europe are directly caused by climate change. Ignition can result from lightning, accidents or human activity, while land management, vegetation, wind and topography all influence how a fire develops.
However, a hotter and drier background climate can make landscapes more receptive to fire and allow individual ignitions to develop into much larger events.
The experience of July 2026 demonstrates the scale of that challenge. For western Europe, the combination of repeated heatwaves, severe dryness, and record ocean temperatures has created an increasingly difficult environment for managing wildfires, with consequences extending well beyond the areas directly affected by flames.
