China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for more than two years as renewables stunt demand for fossil fuels. But the country just saw its steepest quarterly drop since the Covid pandemic, thanks to energy shocks rippling from the Iran war.
Between July and September, China saw its carbon dioxide emissions fall by 3.1 percent, according to an analysis of official figures and commercial data by Carbon Brief. That is the biggest quarterly decline since the 2022 pandemic lockdowns.
The analysis finds oil use fell by 4 percent, year on year, as Chinese drivers flocked to electric vehicles at a time when the Iran war is driving up the cost of fuel. Electric cars accounted for two in three new passenger vehicles sold in China in September, according to industry data. The uptake of electric cars has helped China ramp down oil imports in the wake of the conflict, analysts find.
Emissions from coal, meanwhile, fell by 3 percent, year on year, as the rapid growth of renewables far outstripped the rise in power demand. China added enough wind, solar, and nuclear generation over the same period to power Germany and more than twice as much as needed to meet China’s growing demand. Emissions from the production of steel and concrete also fell amid the ongoing construction slowdown.
China is continuing to build new coal plants despite the decline in coal generation. As the number of generators grows and the use of coal power declines, the average plant is seeing its running hours drop.
The shift from coal to renewables comes even as large volumes of solar and wind power go unused. China is now generating much more clean electricity than its power grid can handle. In the first six months of this year, China rejected roughly a quarter of its wind and solar output.
Analysts say that China lacks the transmission infrastructure necessary to ferry abundant clean energy from where it is generated to where it is needed. Also at issue is a policy that guarantees the purchase of electricity from newly built coal power plants.
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