The summer of 2026 has brought an exceptional rise in wildfire emissions across parts of France, Spain, and Canada, with major fires producing widespread smoke and significantly affecting air quality.
Data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) shows particularly striking increases in France and the Canadian province of Ontario, where emissions reached levels well above historical norms.
CAMS has launched Fire Emissions Watch, a new online application designed to show where wildfire emissions are being produced, how they develop over time and where the resulting smoke is likely to travel.
The tool combines satellite observations, emissions estimates and atmospheric forecasts, giving researchers, policymakers, journalists and the public a way to examine individual fire events alongside more than two decades of historical data.
The result is a clearer picture of the scale of this summer’s fire activity. By early August, France’s cumulative wildfire carbon emissions had passed one megatonne of carbon, making 2026 the third-highest annual total in the CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) record.
In Ontario, July’s estimated emissions exceeded those recorded for the same month in every previous year covered by the dataset.
A new way to track wildfire emissions
Fire Emissions Watch is built around data from GFAS, a system developed with experts from the Norwegian Institute for Air Research and King’s College London.
Rather than simply counting fires or measuring the area burned, it estimates the amount of material being consumed and the resulting emissions.
The system uses satellite observations of active fires to calculate fire radiative power, a measure of how much energy a fire releases as radiation. Higher fire intensity can indicate greater quantities of vegetation being consumed.
GFAS then combines those observations with information about vegetation and emission factors to estimate the substances released into the atmosphere.
Those estimates are fed into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System.
This allows the platform to show not only where emissions originate, but also how smoke and other pollutants are expected to move through the atmosphere.
That distinction matters because the effects of a wildfire can extend far beyond the area actually burning.
France’s wildfire emissions rise sharply
France provides one of the clearest examples of how quickly wildfire emissions can escalate.
Fires across the country during July included major incidents along the Mediterranean coast and in south-western France, with fires in Gironde and Landes prompting mass evacuations and affecting air quality.
CAMS data shows France’s cumulative emissions initially tracking relatively close to its long-term average. That changed dramatically during the second half of July, when the emissions curve rose sharply as major fires took hold.
By the beginning of August, the country’s cumulative 2026 total had exceeded one megatonne of carbon. Only the complete annual totals for 2022 and 2003 were higher in the GFAS record at that point.
Smoke spreads well beyond Spanish fires
Spain also experienced a series of major fires during July, including incidents around Zaragoza, Girona, Almería,l and Guadalajara.
Fires in and around Ávila and Madrid later in the month threatened communities and contributed to deteriorating air quality across central Spain.
The Fire Emissions Watch data lets analysts examine individual provinces and smaller areas rather than relying solely on national figures. For Ávila and Madrid, estimated July emissions were substantially above typical levels.
CAMS forecasts suggested that smoke from the central Spanish fires would be carried northwards and westwards. A large aerosol plume subsequently stretched from northwestern Spain towards northern Europe.
The episode also demonstrates why wildfire smoke can be difficult to assess. A combination of wildfire smoke, traffic pollution and Saharan dust influenced Madrid’s air quality.
Identifying the source of a visible plume therefore does not necessarily reveal the full picture of pollution at ground level.
Canada records an exceptional surge
The largest global source of wildfire emissions during July was Canada, according to the platform.
Fires had been burning in the Northwest Territories since June before activity increased dramatically in northwestern Ontario on 13 July.
Numerous fires developed along a front stretching almost 500 kilometres. Ontario subsequently recorded its highest annual total of estimated wildfire emissions in the GFAS dataset.
The smoke did not remain confined to the affected areas. Air quality deteriorated severely across the Great Lakes region, including Toronto, before smoke moved towards eastern Canada, the north-eastern United States and the North Atlantic. Smoke from northern fires also continued to affect the Canadian Arctic.
By the end of July, Ontario’s cumulative 2026 emissions had surpassed the final annual total recorded in every previous year of the GFAS dataset, which stretches back to 2003.
Why wildfire emissions matter for air quality
One of the main concerns associated with wildfire smoke is PM2.5, fine particulate matter capable of penetrating deep into the lungs.
Exposure can worsen respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, with children, older people, pregnant women and those with existing health conditions among the groups that may be particularly vulnerable.
Fire Emissions Watch is not intended to replace local air-quality monitoring, official health guidance or emergency warnings. Its role is broader, providing context on where emissions originate, how large an episode is and how smoke may develop and travel.
Putting 2026 into historical context
One of the platform’s most useful features is its historical record.
Users can compare current wildfire emissions with data going back to 2003, including major events such as the 2003 European fires, the 2019 Amazon fires, and Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season.
That historical perspective makes it possible to distinguish an unusually active fire season from one that falls within normal variation.
By bringing emissions estimates, fire activity, smoke transport, and historical comparisons into one platform, Fire Emissions Watch offers a more detailed view of how wildfires affect the atmosphere, from individual regions to events spanning entire continents.
