A new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has warned that climate change could substantially increase wildfire damage across Europe by the end of the century.
Hotter, drier and windier conditions are projected to expand the amount of land affected by fires, even under a relatively low-emissions pathway.
Researchers estimate that annual burned area could be around 39% higher by 2070-2100 than the 2000-2030 average under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.
Under SSP3-7.0, representing substantially higher emissions and warming, the increase could reach approximately 192%. The greatest increases are expected across the Mediterranean, as well as parts of Western and Central Europe.
The study, involving researchers from PIK and the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, also highlights the potential for fire prevention, early detection and firefighting to limit wildfire damage.
Modelling suggests improved fire management could reduce burned area by as much as 92% in a 1.8°C warming scenario and 72% in a 3.6°C scenario, although the researchers caution that these estimates may be optimistic under extreme conditions.
Maik Billing, researcher at PIK and lead author of the study, explained: “Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe.
“Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8°C.
“But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires.”
Climate change raises European fire risk
The research compared projected fire activity for the final three decades of the century with a 2000-2030 reference period. Its findings point to a significant shift in European fire conditions as climate change increases the frequency and severity of hot, dry and windy weather.
The projected changes are particularly significant because some regions currently less exposed to major wildfires could face substantially greater risks in the future.
As vegetation dries out, fires can spread more rapidly and become harder to contain, increasing pressure on emergency services and potentially causing greater damage to forests, infrastructure and communities.
The findings are consistent with wider research showing that climate change is already influencing patterns of burned area globally.
A 2024 study published in Nature Climate Change found that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% between 2003 and 2019 compared with a counterfactual climate without human-caused warming.
Fire management could limit wildfire damage
The study’s modelling indicates that climate action and fire management need to work together.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would lower the severity of future fire conditions, while investment in prevention, detection, trained crews, equipment and coordination could reduce the amount of land ultimately lost to fires.
However, there are limits to how effective these measures can remain as conditions become more extreme. Very large, fast-moving fires can overwhelm firefighting resources, making historical experience an increasingly unreliable guide to future fire behaviour.
Europe already facing severe fire season
The projections come as Europe experiences another severe wildfire season.
Data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) indicated that approximately 550,000 hectares had burned across the EU by 12 August 2026, around two and a half times the 20-year average for that point in the year.
The current season provides a clear indication of the pressures facing European fire services as extreme weather combines with dry vegetation and strong winds.
The new research suggests these conditions could become increasingly widespread, making both emissions reductions and investment in wildfire preparedness critical to limiting future wildfire damage.
