Tag: Energy

  • The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset

    The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset

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    In 2025, we will see a fundamental transformation in the language of climate politics. We’re going to hear a lot less about “reducing emissions” from scientists and policymakers and a lot more about “phasing out fossil fuels” or “ending coal, oil, and methane gas.” This is a good thing. Although it is scientifically accurate, the phrase “reducing emissions” is too easily used for greenwashing by the fossil-energy industry and its advocates. The expression “ending coal, oil, and methane gas,” on the other hand, keeps the focus on the action that will do most to resolve the climate crisis.

    This discourse shift has been initiated by the latest report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world’s climate scientists say that already existing fossil-energy infrastructure is projected to emit the total carbon budget for halting global heating at 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial temperatures. This statement means two things. It means that the world cannot develop any more coal, oil, or gas, if we want our planet to remain relatively livable. And it means that even some already developed fossil-fuel deposits will need to be retired before the end of their lifetime, since we need to leave space in the carbon budget for essential activities like agriculture.

    The international community has already integrated this new science into its global climate governance. The 28th Conference of the Parties—the annual conference of the world’s nations party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change—called for every country to contribute to “transitioning away from fossil fuels.” Never before in the history of international climate negotiations had the main cause of global heating been clearly named and specifically targeted. The United Nations itself now calls for the phaseout of coal, oil, and methane gas.

    This new climate language will become mainstream in 2025. In her policy plans for her second term aspPresident of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen pledged not to work to lower EU emissions, but to “continue to bring down energy prices by moving further away from fossil fuels.” The new UK government promised in its manifesto that it will withhold licenses for new coal and for oil exploration—and states outright that it will “ban fracking for good.” And in France, Macron has explicitly vowed to end fossil-fuel use entirely.

    Climate politics in the US will also evolve in the wake of Donald Trump’s reelection for president. Republicans will continue to embrace a “drill, baby, drill” climate agenda, denying the danger or sometimes even the reality of climate change while advocating for expanding domestic crude and methane-gas production. They may try to greenwash their policies by claiming they embrace an “all of the above” energy strategy, but this messaging will have limited effects. Due to political polarization the association of Trump with coal, oil, and gas will raise Democratic support for phasing out fossil fuels. Before the 2024 election, 59 percent of Democrats said climate change should be the Federal government’s top priority, but only 48 percent said they supported a phaseout. In 2025 majorities of Democrats will begin to support fossil-fuel phaseout, especially if climate advocates revive science-based climate messaging, continue to emphasize that clean-energy deployment is job creation, and frame choosing to phase out fossil fuels as a form of freedom that upholds our right to a livable future.

    Given that Democrats won many down-ballot races, and cities and states are still pledging to pass climate policies, this shift in the Democratic majority will keep the US on the map in international climate negotiations, whether or not Trump withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement, creating new local alliances with the UK, the EU, and global south nations calling for international fossil-fuel phaseout targets. This bloc can counter the power of petrostates in international climate negotiations. At the very least, the mainstreaming of the language of fossil-fuel phaseout will help undermine the greenwashing strategy of current oil and gas company PR, which falsely advertises industry as pursuing technologies at scale to help “reduce emissions” even as they continue their upstream investments.

    Of course the petrostates, along with India and China, will push back against the rhetoric of fossil fuel phaseout. But India can be helped to turn away from its domestic coal stores by clean-energy financing at close to cost along with the international aid and technology transfers already pledged at previous climate conferences. And although its rhetoric may not align with that of the West, China should not be imagined as opposed to climate action. China has enacted the most comprehensive climate policy on the planet, in service of its goal to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2060. If their climate messaging remains focused on “emissions,” in light of their plan to keep using fossil fuels past 2030, they are preparing for next decade’s pivot away from fossil fuels by building out clean energy at a truly extraordinary rate.

    In 2025 climate discourse will recenter on the message that halting global heating requires the phaseout of coal, oil, and gas. This new consensus will shift the politics of climate change and help motivate an urgent sprint to a clean-energy, ecologically integrated economy—the only economy that ensures a livable future.

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  • How to Create a Future of Cheap Energy for All

    How to Create a Future of Cheap Energy for All

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    When asked why they chose Tado, he said that customers’ main reason was, “I want to save money. The second reason is, I want to make the planet a better place. If we cannot fulfill the first one,” he stressed, “the second one becomes less relevant.”

    China seems to offer many solutions. Although coal consumption is climbing, it will peak in 2026 as renewables come online, with MingYang Smart Energy president Qiying Zhang outlining how floating and fixed offshore wind turbines are replacing fossil fuels. In August the company installed the world’s largest single-capacity offshore wind turbine, the MySE18.X-20MW, in Hainan, which can generate 80 million kWh annually, offsetting 66,000 tons of CO2.

    Meanwhile, the country’s road transport electrification is moving at pace, thanks to heavy government subsidies. “In China, there were 570,000 EVs bought in August, and if you’re not driving an electric car in China, you’re considered a very boring person,” Stella Li, vice president of Chinese EV giant BYD, told the room. The new Z9 GT offered “intelligent driving,” meaning the car could park itself—even sliding sideways into a tight space, thanks to its flexible rear axle.

    “The epicenter of the energy transition is China, which has a beautiful historical symmetry,” Arthur Downing, director of strategy at Octopus Energy explained. “Until the 18th century, the center of the world economically was China. It was the first energy transition of the industrial revolution in Britain that shifted that economic center of gravity to Europe. So we’re coming full circle at a ridiculous speed.”

    Ann Mettler, European vice president of Bill Gates’ sustainable energy organization Breakthrough Energy, and Sabrina Schulz, strategic expert in climate, energy, and biodiversity, agreed that while Europe was making progress, it was falling behind and needed a blend of public and private finance to catch up by connecting and renewing grids and considering decentralized or even virtual power plants. “Policy certainty and public guarantees on investment in, say, green district heating is an absolute condition for investors,” Schulz argued.

    Sana Khareghani, professor of practice in AI at King’s College London, suggested AI could help, managing and optimizing energy grids and helping develop new batteries to store power for when it’s most needed—helping reduce reliance on the fossil fuel powered generators of last resort.

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  • How Trump Could Actually Increase Fossil Fuel Production

    How Trump Could Actually Increase Fossil Fuel Production

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    This story originally appeared on Vox and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

    During his campaign, president-elect Donald Trump had a pointed tagline for his energy policy: “Drill, baby, drill.”

    That statement is emblematic of where Trump is poised to focus his efforts in a second term: He’s pledged US “energy dominance” and everything from “new pipelines” to “new refiners” that amp up fossil fuel production.

    This approach marks a stark shift from the Biden administration’s and puts the US’s emphasis more heavily on producing oil and gas than on attempting a transition to clean energy sources. In addition to touting the need to boost fossil fuels, Trump has disparaged subsidies for clean energy investments and called for “terminat[ing]” the funds that were allocated for those subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act. His stance ignores the role that burning fossil fuels has played in climate change and could cause considerable harm to US efforts to address the issue.

    Several of his nominations are indicative of these goals. He’s chosen oil industry executive Chris Wright—a fracking evangelist—to head up the Department of Energy. He’s named North Dakota governor Doug Burgum—who connected Trump to oil executive donors during the campaign—as the lead for the Interior Department and as an “energy czar.” He’s also tapped former representative Lee Zeldin—who’s emphasized his commitment to deregulation—as his chief of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

    There’s only so much the administration can control, however. Although Trump can take notable steps to try to increase fossil fuel production, actual upticks in oil and gas extraction will depend heavily on the private sector and the economics of the industry.

    Still, while Trump faces some constraints, he has significant policy levers he can pull to encourage production of fossil fuels. Wright, Burgum, and Zeldin have also signaled they’re prepared to execute on the president-elect’s vision, including changes to drilling on public lands and speedier permitting for oil and gas projects.

    “President Trump and his energy team—Mr. Burgum, Mr. Wright, Mr. Zeldin—can go to considerable lengths to make expanded production attractive and relatively easy,” Barry Rabe, a University of Michigan environmental policy professor, told Vox.

    How Trump Could Increase Fossil Fuel Production

    Trump has two key avenues he can utilize to boost fossil fuel production. One, he can open up more public lands and waters for exploration, development, and extraction. Two, he can ease the regulatory processes that govern fossil fuel work.

    Trump Could Offer More Oil and Gas Leases on Public Lands

    As president, Trump will oversee the Interior Department, which includes the Bureau of Land Management as well as the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, both of which manage a substantial fraction of the country’s public lands and waters. He’ll also oversee the Agriculture Department, which contains the Forest Service, another body that has oversight of some public lands.

    The Bureaus of Land Management and Ocean Energy Management, as well as the Forest Service, are the three main entities that issue oil and gas leases on public spaces. These leases effectively allow fossil fuel companies to rent parcels of public land from the federal government so they can extract resources from these areas. Once land is designated as available for lease, leases are typically auctioned off to the highest bidder.

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  • The World’s Biggest Maker of EVs Has the Worst Appraisal of Human Rights

    The World’s Biggest Maker of EVs Has the Worst Appraisal of Human Rights

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    “[BYD’s] disclosures show a serious lack of transparency on human rights diligence in its battery supply chains,” said Amnesty’s Callamard. “Other low-scoring firms, such as Hyundai and Mitsubishi, lack the necessary depth and information about implementation across key human rights due diligence areas.”

    “The commitments these companies report on are often vague and provide little evidence of meaningful action, showing they have a long way to go to meet international standards,” Callamard said.

    While companies such as Renault and GM have stated their commitment to human rights due diligence, and rank higher than some of the lowest-scoring companies, they still provide limited evidence of fully integrating these commitments into their supply chain operations, with scant information about their risk assessments, according to the Recharge for Rights report.

    BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, and VW have “more to do” to “identify actual and potential human rights risks across [their] supply chains,” said Amnesty, but the fact that they achieved a “moderate” score “should stand as a model for the others to follow,” stated Recharge for Rights.

    Auto Compliance

    Six of the 13 companies featured in the Recharge for Rights report responded to WIRED, stressing that they take the issues raised by Amnesty seriously. BMW, GM, Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Hyundai all sent statements regarding their poor scoring.

    Mitsubishi said Amnesty’s report was based on information dating from 2023, “but we have initiated numerous efforts since then.” These measures, said the Japanese company, include using AI to “analyze potential connections with suppliers related to conflict minerals and other issues.”

    Nissan provided WIRED with its Sustainability Data Book, which included minerals-sourcing best practices, adding that the company respected the “human rights of all stakeholders” and complied with “applicable laws, regulations, and standards.”

    “Our supply chain compliance program sets out the highest standards,” stated Hyundai, adding it was “committed to a sustainable, ethical supply chain that upholds human rights, environmental protection, and safety.”

    “We have been committed to respecting human rights for years, even beyond legal requirements,” Mercedes-Benz stated, highlighting that it “ranks the best among the evaluated automobile manufacturers” in Amnesty’s report.

    BMW pointed WIRED to the group’s compliance management documents. General Motors said it was committed to “sustainable and responsible sourcing of goods and services.” A Ford spokesperson offered to be interviewed on a Zoom-style call but, at the agreed time, did not show up.

    History of Criticism

    Digging up minerals can be exceedingly lucrative for mining companies, but people who live in proximity to these resources rarely, if ever, benefit. For some Brazilian communities, this changed last month following a court case that will be keenly studied by the industries that rely on such minerals, including the automotive sector.

    The largest class action in English history was filed in London on October 21, a claim involving 700,000 individuals seeking redress after a devastating tailings dam rupture in 2015 on the Doce River in southeastern Brazil. Nine years later, the Doce River—which the Krenak Indigenous people revere as a deity—is still poisoned with the iron ore mine’s deluge-related toxins.

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  • How to Design a Real-Life Hot Wheels Loop

    How to Design a Real-Life Hot Wheels Loop

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    Text Document and Mathematical Equation

    I get a minimum height of 2.5R. So if the loop is 4 meters high (with a radius of 2 meters), the car would have to start 5 meters above the ground to just make the loop. Of course, this assumes there’s no energy loss due to friction; you’d probably want to start a bit higher to account for that.

    But Not Too High …

    In fact, why cut it close? Why not just start much higher and eliminate all doubt? The reason is that the faster the car goes, the higher the g-forces experienced by the driver in the loop.

    Let’s think about this: If you release a car so that it goes around the loop at minimum speed, there will be zero force from the track (FT). You’d feel weightless—zero g’s—for an instant. If the car is released from a height greater than 2.5R, its velocity would be greater than the minimum at the top of the loop. In order to still move in a circle, the gravitational force would not be enough. The track would also have to push down on the car. This would create a g-force greater than zero.

    Let’s go back to the video of the real stunt. By comparing the loop to the bystanders, I’m guessing it has a radius of 2 meters. The car is clearly released from a height above the 5-meter minimum—let’s say it’s 8 meters. The force at the top of the loop (divided by the weight, to get it in g’s) would be 3 g’s. It’s possible for humans to withstand up to 20 g’s, so this should be fine.

    But if you go extreme? If you start too high and make the loop too small, bad things can happen. What about a height of 20 meters with a 1.5-meter radius for the loop? This would produce a force of 21 g’s. It might look cool, but it also might kill you. That’s not fun anymore.

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  • Drought, fires and fossil fuels push CO2 emissions to a record high

    Drought, fires and fossil fuels push CO2 emissions to a record high

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    Wildfires in the tropics drove some increase in CO2 emissions but the bulk was driven by burning fossil fuels

    Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images

    Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2024 are set to blow past last year’s record levels, dashing hopes this year will see the planet-warming emissions peak.

    “Reducing emissions is more urgent than ever and there’s only one way to do it: massively reduce fossil emissions,” says Pierre Friedlingstein at the University of Exeter, UK.

    That is according to the latest Global Carbon Budget report, a preliminary accounting of CO2 emissions to date with projections to the end of the year, produced by Friedlingstein and his colleagues. It was released at the COP29 summit now underway in Azerbaijan, where countries aim to set new financial targets to address climate change.

    Last year, some researchers were forecasting a peak in emissions in 2024, but the report finds human-caused CO2 emissions are set to reach a record 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024, a 2 per cent rise on 2023’s record. Almost 90 per cent of that total consists of emissions from burning fossil fuels. The rest is from changes in the land driven mostly by deforestation and wildfires.

    At 0.8 per cent, the growth rate of fossil fuel emissions is half that of 2023, although it remains higher than the average rate over the past decade. “[The slower rate] is a good sign, but it’s still miles away from where we need to get,” says Friedlingstein.

    Despite a long-term downward trend, projected emissions from land use change also increased this year, largely due to drought-driven wildfires in the tropics. Some of the increase is also down to a collapse of the carbon land sink in 2023, which usually removes about a quarter of our annual CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This sink declined by more than 40 per cent last year and the early part of 2024 as global temperatures spiked under the influence of El Niño.

    “2023 is an incredible demonstration of what can happen in a warmer world when we had peak records in global temperatures combined with El Niño droughts and fires,” says Pep Canadell at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Australia, a co-author of the report. “Put all these things together and last year we had almost a third less help removing atmospheric CO2 by the world’s forests than we have had over the last decade.”

    While this also added to emissions in 2024, the researchers expect this “land carbon sink” has mostly recovered as the warming influence of El Niño has faded. “It’s not a long-term collapse,” says Friedlingstein.

    The report finds CO2 emissions in China, which generates nearly a third of the global total, are only projected to increase by 0.2 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023. Canadell says that because of the large margin of error in this projection of China’s emissions, it is actually possible they have stayed steady or gone down. India’s emissions also increased at a slower rate than last year, rising by just under 5 per cent. In the US and the EU, emissions continued to decline, albeit at a much slower rate than last year.

    Hot temperatures that boost electricity demand to power air conditioning are also a key reason why fossil fuel emissions have continued to rise despite the massive build-out of renewables in 2024, says Neil Grant at Climate Analytics, a think tank in Germany. Whether due to electric vehicles, data centres or manufacturing, “most people have been caught a bit surprised by the level of electricity demand this year”, he says.

    If emissions continue at this level, the report finds that within six years the world will exceed its remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and will exceed the budget to stay within 2°C warming within 27 years.

    “We have to accelerate, accelerate, accelerate, accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” says Candell. “Climate change is like a slippery slope that we can just keep falling down. We need to slam on the brakes as hard as we can so we can stop falling.”

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  • Meta’s Next Llama AI Models Are Training on a GPU Cluster ‘Bigger Than Anything’ Else

    Meta’s Next Llama AI Models Are Training on a GPU Cluster ‘Bigger Than Anything’ Else

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    Managing such a gargantuan array of chips to develop Llama 4 is likely to present unique engineering challenges and require vast amounts of energy. Meta executives on Wednesday sidestepped an analyst question about energy access constraints in parts of the US that have hampered companies’ efforts to develop more powerful AI.

    According to one estimate, a cluster of 100,000 H100 chips would require 150 megawatts of power. The largest national lab supercomputer in the United States, El Capitan, by contrast requires 30 megawatts of power. Meta expects to spend as much as $40 billion in capital this year to furnish data centers and other infrastructure, an increase of more than 42 percent from 2023. The company expects even more torrid growth in that spending next year.

    Meta’s total operating costs have grown about 9 percent this year. But overall sales—largely from ads—have surged more than 22 percent, leaving the company with fatter margins and larger profits even as it pours billions of dollars into the Llama efforts.

    Meanwhile, OpenAI, considered the current leader in developing cutting-edge AI, is burning through cash despite charging developers for access to its models. What for now remains a nonprofit venture has said that it is training GPT-5, a successor to the model that currently powers ChatGPT. OpenAI has said that GPT-5 will be larger than its predecessor, but it has not said anything about the computer cluster it is using for training. OpenAI has also said that in addition to scale, GPT-5 will incorporate other innovations, including a recently developed approach to reasoning.

    CEO Sam Altman has said that GPT-5 will be “a significant leap forward” compared to its predecessor. Last week, Altman responded to a news report stating that OpenAI’s next frontier model would be released by December by writing on X, “fakes news out of control.”

    On Tuesday, Google CEO Sundar Pichai said the company’s newest version of the Gemini family of generative AI models is in development.

    Meta’s open approach to AI has at times proven controversial. Some AI experts worry that making significantly more powerful AI models freely available could be dangerous because it could help criminals launch cyberattacks or automate the design of chemical or biological weapons. Although Llama is fine-tuned prior to its release to restrict misbehavior, it is relatively trivial to remove these restrictions.

    Zuckerberg remains bullish about the open source strategy, even as Google and OpenAI push proprietary systems. “It seems pretty clear to me that open source will be the most cost effective, customizable, trustworthy, performant, and easiest to use option that is available to developers,” he said on Wednesday. “And I am proud that Llama is leading the way on this.”

    Zuckerberg added that the new capabilities of Llama 4 should be able to power a wider range of features across Meta services. Today, the signature offering based on Llama models is the ChatGPT-like chatbot known as Meta AI that’s available in Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and other apps.

    Over 500 million people monthly use Meta AI, Zuckerberg said. Over time, Meta expects to generate revenue through ads in the feature. “There will be a broadening set of queries that people use it for, and the monetization opportunities will exist over time as we get there,” Meta CFO Susan Li said on Wednesday’s call. With the potential for revenue from ads, Meta just might be able to pull off subsidizing Llama for everyone else.

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  • A High-Profile Geneticist Is Launching a Fusion-Power Moonshot

    A High-Profile Geneticist Is Launching a Fusion-Power Moonshot

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    Eric Lander is a Big Science heavyweight. A geneticist, molecular biologist, and mathematician, he led the International Human Genome Project and is founding director of the powerful Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. His countless accolades include a MacArthur “genius” grant and 14 honorary doctorates. When Joe Biden became president, he tapped Lander to be his science adviser and the head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. Lander lost the job because of charges that he bullied subordinates, but he went on to head a nonprofit organization called Science for America.

    So what is he doing running a Silicon Valley startup that aims to solve the climate crisis by realizing the long-held dream of clean fusion energy? Lander is the founding CEO of newly announced Pacific Fusion, heading a team that includes top scientists from the national nuclear labs—Lawrence Livermore and Sandia—as well as experts in simulation and operations. It joins several dozen companies chasing a fusion dream that always seems to be 10 or 20 years out. And it still is—Pacific Fusion says it won’t deliver a working commercial fusion plant until well into the 2030s. But this time there’s a clear path to success. Or so says its famous CEO.

    In May 2023, Science for America issued a report that flagged progress in fusion, citing recent breakthroughs. The year before, a Livermore group achieved what is known as “target gain,” producing significantly more energy than the amount required to perform the experiment. Soon after publishing the paper, Lander quietly formed a company with some scientists in the field, including some who worked at the labs and others from places like Alphabet’s X division and Tesla.

    Sitting in a conference room at Pacific Fusion’s headquarters in Fremont, California, Lander explains to me why commercial fusion is finally within reach—and why Pacific Fusion may have the best chance to make it happen. He starts by giving me a primer on fusion, which happens when hydrogen is, in his word, “squished” into helium, releasing massive amounts of energy. It occurs naturally on the sun and other stars, but humans have yet to figure out how to do it efficiently here on Earth. But the potential payoff—unlimited clean power—has prompted around 50 startups to chase this dragon. Billionaires including Sam Altman and Bill Gates have backed one or another of these startups. Every few months, it seems, one of those contenders announces some breakthrough.

    Why does Pacific Fusion say it’s different? The method it’s pursuing is called pulsed magnetic fusion, which involves inserting tiny containers of deuterium-tritium fuel into a chamber and blasting large electrical pulses through them to magnetically squeeze the fuel containers and achieve fusion. (It’s all explained here in a paper.) “It’s a very attractive approach that’s sort of been known for decades as an idea but has only just become feasible in the last two years because of this work in the national labs,” says Lander. His contention, which I will hear repeatedly as I meet with his team, is that we’ve now made all the scientific breakthroughs we need to understand how to use this technique to generate way more energy that it takes to build and run this system. The remaining challenges—hard ones to be sure— lie in engineering.

    Another challenge is getting the money to build the prototypes for the hundreds of commercial plants that will theoretically solve the world’s energy woes. (And maybe cause global disruption when the current suppliers are upended, but that’s another story.) How do you fund a moonshot? Even when an investor accepts the risk, the prospect for payoff is distant: The Pacific Fusion timeline is to have a full-scale demonstration system sometime in the early 2030s, and commercial systems later in the decade.

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  • Will AI’s huge energy demands spur a nuclear renaissance?

    Will AI’s huge energy demands spur a nuclear renaissance?

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    An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center in Ashburn, Virginia.

    An Amazon data centre in Ashburn, Virginia. Technology companies are investing in nuclear power to try and address the growing energy demands of such facilities.Credit: Nathan Howard/Getty

    Last week, technology giants Google and Amazon both unveiled deals supporting ‘advanced’ nuclear energy, as part of their efforts to become carbon-neutral.

    Google announced that it will buy electricity made with reactors developed by Kairos Power, based in Alameda, California. Meanwhile, Amazon is investing approximately US$500 million in the X-Energy Reactor Company, based in Rockville, Maryland, and has agreed to buy power produced by X-energy-designed reactors due to be built in Washington State.

    Both moves are part of a larger green trend that has arisen as tech companies deal with the escalating energy requirements of the data centres and number-crunching farms that support artificial intelligence (AI). Last month, Microsoft said it would buy power from a utility company that is planning to restart a decommissioned 835-megawatt reactor in Pennsylvania.

    The partnerships agreed by Google and Amazon involve start-up companies that are pioneering the design of ‘small modular reactors’, which are intended to be assembled from prefabricated pieces. The idea is to make nuclear reactors that are smaller, cheaper, safer and faster to deploy than those used in conventional plants. The designs pursued by X-energy, Kairos and several other companies (funded, in part, by institutions such as the US Department of Energy and the European Commission) are radically different from those of established energy companies, but they still have a way to go before they become a reality.

    Nature talked to nuclear-energy researchers to explore the significance and possible implications of these big-tech investments.

    Could these deals spur innovation in the nuclear industry?

    Building nuclear power stations — a process often plagued by complex permit procedures, construction delays and cost overruns — is financially risky, and betting on unproven technologies is riskier still. But the deals with Google and Amazon could provide a “massive” push for Kairos and X-energy, says nuclear engineer Jacopo Buongiorno, who heads up the Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. “The biggest value is a vote of confidence, and of course it comes with some cash,” he says. Such announcements could help companies to raise extra funding, he says, and jump over the ‘innovation valley of death’ that often separates promising ideas from commercial success.

    But the details of the deals are murky, and the level of support provided by Amazon and Google is likely to be “a drop in the bucket” compared with the billions these start-ups will ultimately need, says physicist Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington DC. “The PR machine is just going into overdrive,” says Lyman, but “private capital just doesn’t seem ready yet to take that risk”.

    Allison Macfarlane, director of the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, and former chair of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), says that the speed of progress in computer science raises another question. “If we’re talking 15 years from now, will AI need that much power?”

    How do small modular reactors work?

    A number of start-up companies — as well as some established corporations, including Toshiba and Rolls Royce — are developing small reactors, and each claims its own originality and advantages. Most are pursuing designs that are different from those that have been used so far for electricity production.

    In almost all types of nuclear reactor, the source of energy is the splitting of uranium atoms. A nucleus of the unstable isotope uranium-235 breaks up when hit by a neutron, and this releases more neutrons, which hit more nuclei, leading to a chain reaction. A conventional nuclear power station extracts the resulting energy — released as heat — by pumping cold water through the reactor’s core and producing pressurized steam to power turbines that generate electricity.

    X-energy’s design replaces the water with helium, whereas Kairos plans to use molten salt. Both forgo the conventional nuclear-fuel rods, replacing them with thousands of round fuel ‘pebbles’. The pebbles are continually added at the top of the reactor, while spent pebbles are removed from the bottom, not unlike the way a gumball vending machine works.

    Are there safety advantages to the small modular designs?

    “The smallest reactors, in theory, could have a high degree of passive safety,” says Lyman. When shut down, the core of a small reactor would contain less residual heat and radioactivity than does a core of the type that melted down in the Fukushima Daiichi disaster that followed the cataclysmic 2011 tsunami in Japan.

    The companies also say that the proposed pebble-bed reactors are inherently safer because they are not pressurized, and because they are designed to circulate cooling fluids without the help of pumps (it was the loss of power to water pumps that caused three of the Fukushima plant’s reactors to fail).

    But Lyman thinks it is risky to rely on potentially unpredictable passive cooling without the backup of an active cooling option. And as reactors become get smaller, they become less efficient. Another start-up company, NuScale Power, based in Portland, Oregon, originally designed its small modular reactor — which was certified by the NRC — to produce 50 MW of electricity, but later switched to a larger, 77-MW design. The need to make the economics work “makes passive safety less credible”, Lyman says.

    Do small modular reactors carry extra risks?

    In some cases, small modular reactors “could actually push nuclear power in a more dangerous direction”, says Lyman. “Advanced isn’t always better.”

    In particular, Lyman points out that the pebble-bed designs drawn up by X-energy and Kairos would rely on high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which comprises 10–20% uranium-235 — compared with the 5% enrichment level required by most existing reactors (and by NuScale’s reactor). HALEU is still classified as low-enrichment fuel (as opposed to the highly enriched uranium used to make nuclear bombs), but that distinction is misleading, Lyman says. In June, he and his collaborators — including physicist Richard Garwin, who led the design of the first hydrogen bomb — warned in a Science article that a bomb could be built with a few hundred kilograms of HALEU, with no need for further enrichment1.

    The cooling towers of the Mochovce nuclear power plant in Slovakia.

    Small modular reactors are designed to be cheaper, safer and faster to build than those used in conventional nuclear power plants, such as this one in Mochovce, Slovakia.Credit: Janos Kummer/Getty

    Smaller reactors are also likely to produce more nuclear waste and to use fuel less efficiently, according to work reported in 2022 by Macfarlane and her collaborators2. In a full-size reactor, most of the neutrons produced by the splitting of uranium travel through a large volume of fuel, meaning that they have a high probability of hitting another nucleus, rather than colliding with the walls of the reactor vessel or escaping into the surrounding building. “When you shrink the reactor, there’s less material in there, so you will have more neutron leakage,” Macfarlane says. These rogue neutrons can be absorbed by other atomic nuclei — which would then themselves become radioactive.

    NuScale points out that the study was based, in part, on the company’s now-abandoned 50-MW design, but Macfarlane and others say that the problem is likely to apply to most small reactors.

    Will small reactors be cheaper to build?

    The capacity to build components in an assembly line could drastically cut reactors’ construction costs. But there are also intrinsic economies of scale in building larger reactors, says Buongiorno. “Don’t believe people blindly” when they say smaller reactors will produce cheaper energy, he says: nuclear energy has a lot going for it, but “it ain’t cheap” — and that is unlikely to change significantly.

    However, once the technology has been proven and has matured, building each individual small reactor should be cheaper and faster than constructing large, conventional ones, Buongiorno adds. This could make them an attractive proposition to investors and speed up their adoption.

    Meanwhile, Lyman and others worry that the hype surrounding small modular reactor technology — and the push to cut costs — could lower safety standards. Some companies, for example, say that their reactors are so safe that they won’t need reinforced-concrete containment structures.

    Will all of these efforts help to combat climate change?

    “We shouldn’t shut down existing nuclear power. We need it desperately, and we desperately need to get off fossil fuels,” says Macfarlane. Even some lifelong opponents of nuclear power grudgingly agree.

    But whether building new reactors is the best way to rapidly cut emissions is debated. Macfarlane points out that solar panels and wind turbines can be deployed at a much faster rate. Other assessments, including one by the International Energy Agency, suggest that in many parts of the world, it would be prohibitively expensive to rely wholly on erratic solar and wind power, even with the addition of massive batteries — and that ready-on-demand sources, including nuclear power, will still have an important role in future energy provision3.

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