In late September, President Donald J. Trump announced on Truth Social that the US was working “on a massive Deal” with Belarus to restart imports of potash, the key mineral in potassium fertilizers.
Trump claims that the Belarusian imports would be cheaper than potash from Canada, which supplies about three-quarters of the potash used by US farmers (PDF).
Canada’s proximity to the US is a major logistical advantage over Belarus. But Canadian potash production is highly concentrated in the hands of two companies, Nutrien and Mosaic, reducing competition.
While it’s nearly impossible for the US to eliminate Canadian imports, industry analysts say a US-Belarus deal—and perhaps more importantly, the imminent entry of a new potash producer in Canada—could push Nutrien and Mosaic to reduce US prices in the coming years.
“These companies are going to be profitable, but margins are going to be under pressure,” says Sylvain Charlebois, a food researcher at Dalhousie University.
The US currently imports more than 90% of its potash, primarily from Canada; smaller portions come from Russia and Israel. Between 2017 and 2021, Belarus supplied about 8% of US potash imports.
But in 2021, US imports of Belarusian potash slowed as the US and other governments imposed increasingly strict sanctions on the country after several antidemocratic moves by Belarus’s government.
By the time Belarus allowed Russian troops to move through the country to invade Ukraine in 2022, Belarusian potash imports were fully banned in the US, according to Alexander Chreky, a potash analyst with the intelligence firm CRU Group.
But the Trump administration’s lifting of some sanctions on Belarus in exchange for the release of political prisoners and other concessions has cleared the way for trade. The first shipment of Belarusian potash since US sanctions were eased is expected to arrive in New Orleans later this month, according to Argus Media.
Belarusian potash faces a complex and expensive journey to reach the US, however. The mineral must be shipped by rail to Saint Petersburg, Russia, because Lithuania, which is closer to the mines, doesn’t allow Belarusian exports from its port. It’s then loaded onto a ship that crosses the Atlantic Ocean. From New Orleans, it must then be sent up the Mississippi river to farmers in the US Midwest.
Meanwhile, Canadian producers like Nutrien and Mosaic mine potash in the central province of Saskatchewan and send fertilizers straight south by rail to US customers.
“Belarus and Russia, they’re a whole ocean away,” Chreky says. “More than that, actually.” Transport makes up a large portion of the cost of potash, he adds, so that extra distance makes it hard for Belarus to match Canadian prices.
Canada’s location and the relatively high demand for potash in the US mean that Nutrien and Mosaic enjoy healthy profit margins on sales to US customers.
“The intent here from the White House was to point to a problem that Canada has around competitiveness,” Charlebois says. “You have basically two companies now . . . and they’ve never really focused on competitiveness.”
But that cushy situation is starting to erode. The mining firm BHP plans to restart a Saskatchewan potash mine next year. BHP’s entrance to the market—especially if combined with a rise in exports from Belarus—could push Canadian firms to accept smaller margins on their US sales.
“You’ll have a lot of potential competition for American demand,” Chreky says. “The US is . . . the most profitable area for these companies to sell.”
There are some plans to increase potash production in the US. In January, Michigan Potash & Salt Co. received conditional approval for a $1.3 billion loan to restart an idle potash mine in northern Michigan.
Even in the most generous scenario, though, the US will import that vast majority of the potash it consumes. It could increase imports from non-Canadian sources, but that would probably require major investments in ports and rail distribution.
“You still can’t cut out Canada at this point,” Chreky says. “It’s still such an important source, and it’s impossible to replace in the short term.”
